A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
