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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But the current competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still